ACUS03 KWNS 091930

SWODY3

SPC AC 091929



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE

NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE

SOUTHEAST...



...SUMMARY...

Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf

coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail

and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be

accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and

High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening.



...Synopsis...

An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool

temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate

southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and

overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous

storms will affect those same states for much of the day.



To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen

further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface

trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west

across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered

thunderstorms. 



...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL...

Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the

northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered

strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west,

daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs

beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts

may occur.



...Northern  High Plains...

As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates

will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat.

Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support

cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At

this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT

near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest

WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in

later outlooks.



..Jewell.. 05/09/2025



$$