ACUS03 KWNS 070634

SWODY3

SPC AC 070633



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0133 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026



Valid 091200Z - 101200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday

across portions of southern Kansas into northwestern and central

Oklahoma.



...KS/OK...



A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies to

the Lower MS Valley on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will

develop in response to the approaching trough in the vicinity of the

TX Panhandle. A dryline will extend southward from the low across

west TX while a warm front extends from far southern KS into

northern/central AR. Gulf moisture will spread northward across OK

to far southern KS and isolated to scattered thunderstorms may

develop by 00z. A cold front will eventually dive southward across

the central/southern Plains during the nighttime hours, but the

timing of this feature is still uncertain. 



The warm sector is expected to be somewhat narrow across southern KS

and OK. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep

midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg will be

possible. Boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited,

generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Strong heating will allow for

deep mixing, and forecast soundings indicate any storms that develop

will likely be higher-based. Effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt

will support organized convection posing a risk for hail and

damaging wind gusts.



..Leitman.. 05/07/2026



$$