ACUS03 KWNS 061932

SWODY3

SPC AC 061931



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0231 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF

MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA...



...SUMMARY...

A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma

into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas

into the lower Mississippi Valley.



...Synopsis...

A northwest flow regime will exist from the Plains into the MS

Valley on Friday as an embedded shortwave moves across the central

Plains and rapidly moves toward the TN Valley into Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, a compact upper low is forecast to move across the Rio

Grande Valley and into TX, providing cool temperatures aloft.



At the surface, a cold front will move into MO/KS and OK, which will

be situated below the cool temperature aloft. Heating/steep lapse

rates near this boundary as well as southerly winds bringing 50s and

60s F dewpoints northward will support scattered strong to severe

storms along this portion of the front. The long hodographs and

northwest flow regime suggest cells capable of hail are most likely.



To the south, bouts of thunderstorms will develop from TX eastward

toward the lower MS Valley. First, early in the day within the

moisture return/warm advection regime, then later in the day as the

upper low approaches from the west. There is a heavy convective

signal from late afternoon into the overnight across much of TX,

however, shear will be weak across most areas. At least low severe

probabilities may be added in later outlooks as predictability

increases and more targeted areas can be discerned.



..Jewell.. 05/06/2026



$$