ACUS03 KWNS 051935

SWODY3

SPC AC 051934



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0234 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026



Valid 071200Z - 081200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE

UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

A few strong storms may occur over parts of the Upper Mississippi

Valley region on Friday. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts appear

most likely.



...Upper Mississippi Valley...

An intensifying mid-level jet is expected to move into the northern

Plains/Upper Midwest during the afternoon. Convergence along a cold

front should increase within Minnesota/western Wisconsin/Iowa. With

around 40 kt of effective shear, supercell structures are possible

at least initially. With time, convergence along the front may

promote more linear storm modes with one or more organizing

clusters/line segments. The zone of greater buoyancy will not extend

much to the east into Wisconsin. There will be a reservoir of strong

instability in parts of Iowa, however. A small MCS could organize

and move southward into this airmass. Wind damaging will be the

primary hazard, though large hail could occur with initial

supercells.



...Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic...

Upper 60s to potentially mid 70s F dewpoints are forecast to remain

across these regions into Friday. Stronger surface heating and

temperatures at or above 90 F in some locations will support

1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear across the

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast is expected to be a bit weaker than on

Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are probable by the afternoon.

Generally weak winds throughout the troposphere suggest locally

pulse severe storms. Lack of greater organization precludes a risk

area at this time.



Stronger mid-level flow is forecast across the Upper Ohio Valley in

association with the Great Lakes trough and possibly an MCV moving

eastward. Models differ on the timing/strength of pertinent surface

features during the afternoon. A zone of greater storm organization

could develop from eastern Indiana into parts of central southern

Ohio and northern Kentucky. Uncertainty remains too high for

probabilities.



..Wendt.. 08/05/2026



$$