ACUS03 KWNS 031925

SWODY3

SPC AC 031924



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025



Valid 051200Z - 061200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE

CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER

MIDWEST...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper

Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail

possible.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley

across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies

during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward

across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent

with more substantial cooling aloft.



At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave

will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by

late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F

dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and

substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are

expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS.

Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be

ruled out.



To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold

front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along

with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support

sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These

cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of

western SD and NE late. 



For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled

front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building

across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed

boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep

low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the

front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here,

with mixed storm modes.



..Jewell.. 07/03/2025



$$