ACUS03 KWNS 021857

SWODY3

SPC AC 021856



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER

PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across

portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday.



...Dakotas and Upper Midwest...

The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern

tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving

across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains.  Models are in

general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will

develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas. 

Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front,

coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of

severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail.  There remain

differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing

and intensity of the approaching trough.  This lends sufficient

uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only

MRGL risk at this time.  However, parts of the area will likely need

upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer.



...ID/MT...

A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on

Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over

parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies.  There is

some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail

over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to

diverse to add a risk area at this time.



..Hart.. 07/02/2025



$$