ACUS02 KWNS 271711

SWODY2

SPC AC 271709



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1209 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Valid 281200Z - 291200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE

ARKLATEX AREA SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN

LOUISIANA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Ozarks

into southeast Texas coast Tuesday. Small to marginally severe hail

may occur from southeast Texas into western Louisiana during the

late afternoon.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

An intense midlevel jet will nose into the KS/OK region during the

day, with a deepening upper low dropping southeastward into AR. A

cold front will extend roughly from the ArkLaTex area southwestward

across eastern TX, with a inverted surface trough extending

northward across AR and MO where surface temperatures will be

cooler.



Ahead of the cold front, modest boundary layer heating along with

upper 60s/low 70s F dewpoints will lead to MLCAPE to around 1500

J/kg. Lapse rates aloft will not be very steep, but favorable lift

along the front should instigate a broken line of storms after 21Z

from near the AR/LA border southwestward into southeastern TX.

Deep-layer shear will be quite strong, especially in the mid to

upper levels, and this should favor cellular storm mode. Storms will

move quickly east/southeastward, with the stronger cells producing

small to perhaps marginally severe hail through early evening from

the upper TX Coast into perhaps central LA.



..Jewell.. 10/27/2025



$$