ACUS02 KWNS 070520

SWODY2

SPC AC 070518



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1218 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR

SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND

SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO...



...SUMMARY...

A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma

into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas

into the lower Mississippi Valley.



...Synopsis...



Northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains as a shortwave

upper trough develops east across the Mid-MS, OH and TN Valleys

through early Saturday. A surface front will extend along the TX

coast northeastward through the northern Gulf. This boundary will

lift northward through the period, allowing for moisture return

across TX, the Lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast.

Meanwhile, a surface cold front is forecast to develop southeast

across parts of the Plains and Midwest, becoming oriented from the

OH Valley to southern AR and north TX by Saturday morning.



...KS/OK/MO/AR...



Moisture return will be limited ahead of the aforementioned cold

front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to be in the 50s.

Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in forecast

soundings, aided by cool temperatures aloft. This will support

MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg within a narrow corridor ahead of

the front. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will

support organized updrafts. Given the cool temperatures aloft/steep

midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight forecast hodographs,

isolated large hail is possible. Furthermore, where there is

stronger heating, deep boundary layer mixing and steepening

low-level lapse rates will be possible, and isolated strong/severe

wind gusts may occur. Instability will diminish with time and

eastward extent into the evening as storms move across parts of

MO/AR. 



...TX to the Lower MS Valley...



Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain with regards to severe

potential across TX. Early day thunderstorms, showers, and

cloudiness are possible as Gulf moisture returns northward across

portions of the state. Capping and initially weak forcing and modest

shear will likely preclude severe potential through much of the day.

Isolated thunderstorms will likely also develop along the retreating

warm front across the Lower MS Valley vicinity, but severe storms

are not expected. 



It is possible that by evening into the nighttime hours some severe

potential could develop across portions of TX as the upper shortwave

trough overspreads the region, resulting in increasing forcing

within the warm advection regime. Some storms developing over the

higher terrain in Mexico could approach the middle/lower Rio Grande

in TX, and if they can be maintained, pose a risk for large hail.

However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at

this time.



..Leitman.. 05/07/2026



$$