ACUS02 KWNS 051728

SWODY2

SPC AC 051726



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH

DAKOTA...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...



...SUMMARY...

A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains,

and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.

Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains/Ozarks activity.



...Northwest Oklahoma into southwest Missouri...

A stalled surface boundary is expected to be draped across southern

Kansas into central Missouri. The Missouri portion of the boundary

will likely be reinforced by early day convection/cloud cover.

Strong heating south of the boundary will allow for locally enhanced

surface convergence. Storm development is possible along the

boundary, though it remains uncertain where this development is most

probable. The presence of the broad trough to the north will support

sufficient shear that storms would be at least marginally organized.

Damaging wind gusts will likely be the main threat with this

activity with marginal hail possible where buoyancy will be locally

greater in Missouri.



...Northeast...

Areas of modest to strong heating of a very moist (70+ F dewpoints)

airmass will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid-afternoon.

Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but enhanced mid-level

winds associated with the Great Lakes trough will promote marginally

organized clusters/linear segments. Isolated wind damage will be

possible with this activity.



...Nebraska/South Dakota...

A secondary cold front will develop within the northern Plains.

Moisture return ahead of the boundary will bring upper 50s to low

60s F dewpoint northward. Mid-level heights are forecast to rise

slightly during the period. Given effective shear of around 40 kt

across the boundary, an isolated supercell or two will be possible

where surface heating can remove MLCIN. Severe winds and marginally

severe hail would be the expected hazards. The Marginal risk remains

where confidence in storm development is highest, though a storm or

two could develop farther northeast. Confidence remains too low for

an expansion of probabilities.



..Wendt.. 08/05/2026



$$