ACUS02 KWNS 030601

SWODY2

SPC AC 030600



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL

PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across

portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday.



...Synopsis...

A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the

western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the

Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper

Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the

Northwest. 



...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...

As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface

low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this

surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is

forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low

80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this

frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm

sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the

southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of

stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a

greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these

mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain

at this time.



...ID/MT...

A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on

Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over

parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies.  There is

some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail

over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to

diverse to add a risk area at this time.



..Bentley.. 07/03/2025



$$