ACUS02 KWNS 021647

SWODY2

SPC AC 021645



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1045 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026



Valid 031200Z - 041200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.



...East TX into the lower MS Valley...

A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will cover most of the

central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday. Multiple embedded low-amplitude

shortwave troughs are expected to move across parts of the

central/southern Plains, Midwest, and lower/mid MS Valleys. A weak

surface low is forecast to move across the TN Valley vicinity, as a

trailing cold front moves through parts of the southern Plains into

the Mid-South and lower MS Valley. 



Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the mid 50s to near

60 F) is expected along/ahead of the front, though the strongest

forcing will likely be displaced north and east of the more

favorable moisture. Generally weak to modest lapse rates will limit

buoyancy (with MLCAPE generally expected to remain below 500 J/kg),

but convection may become sufficiently deep for isolated afternoon

thunderstorm development near the front from parts of east TX into

LA. Elevated convection may also develop into parts of the ArkLaMiss

region. The weak buoyancy and very modest ascent across the warm

sector are still expected to limit severe potential.



..Dean.. 02/02/2026



$$