ACUS01 KWNS 280100

SWODY1

SPC AC 280059



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0759 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Valid 280100Z - 281200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong storms are possible in parts of South Florida and

the central High Plains into the ArkLaTex. Severe weather potential

is expected to remain low, however.



...Synopsis...

An upper-level low continues to move towards the Mid-Atlantic from

the Tennessee Valley region tonight. Modest mid-level flow will

remain over parts of the Florida Peninsula, but the strongest

convection appears to be moving offshore. While additional storms

may develop this evening, the observed, weak mid-level lapse rates

from regional 00Z soundings suggest limited potential for severe

storms.



In the central High Plains, a couple of stronger storms are moving

southeastward through eastern Colorado closely tied to the digging

upper-level trough. Cold temperatures aloft and strong deep-layer

shear could promote small hail production, but a cooling, dry

boundary layer should limit buoyancy and potential for larger hail.



As the upper-trough digs into the southern Plains into Tuesday

morning, a surface low will develop/deepen near the Red River.

Mid-level ascent and 850 mb warm advection may promote isolated to

widely scattered storms in parts of Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Shear will also be strong here as well. An occasional stronger storm

producing small hail is possible, but modest mid-level lapse rates

and elevated buoyancy should keep large hail potential low.



..Wendt.. 10/28/2025



$$