ACUS01 KWNS 271955

SWODY1

SPC AC 271954



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Valid 272000Z - 281200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing

occasional damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening

across parts of the Florida Peninsula.



...20z Update...

The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only adjustment

was a westward expansion of 5% wind (Marginal) risk probabilities

into the Tampa Bay area. A remnant line of thunderstorms that began

in the FL Panhandle early this morning has maintained intensity as

it migrates east/southeast towards the western FL coast. KTBW

imagery shows a well-balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone,

and recent GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud-top temperatures,

indicative of a slight intensification over the past hour. Although

portions of this line have only produced 20-30 mph gusts thus far as

it makes landfall, the most intense portion of the storm may impact

near/north of the Tampa Bay area in the coming hours, warranting an

expansion of risk probabilities. For additional details, see

recently issued MCD #2189 and the previous discussion below.



..Moore.. 10/27/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025/



...Florida...

Strong to locally severe convection has moved southeast and offshore

from the Apalachicola vicinity, so the Marginal Risk has been

removed from this area. Nearly all guidance suggests this activity

will weaken as it approaches the west coast of the FL Peninsula this

afternoon and moves over cooler shelf waters. Other isolated strong

to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across interior

portions of the central FL Peninsula as continued strong diurnal

heating occurs over this area along/south of a stalled front. Even

though lapse rates aloft will remain modest (reference 12Z observed

sounding from TBW), weak low-level flow will veer to

west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper

levels on the southern periphery of an upper trough over the

Southeast. The forecast combination of moderate instability and

around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear may support occasional

convective organization. Isolated damaging winds appear possible

with the stronger cores as low-level lapse rates steepen through the

afternoon. These thunderstorms should move eastward and mostly

offshore through early evening before eventually weakening with the

loss of daytime heating.



...Central High Plains...

An upper trough over the Northwest and northern Rockies will amplify

as it ejects eastward over the northern/central Plains through the

period. Surface lee troughing should deepen this afternoon/evening

as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads

the central High Plains. However, recent visible satellite imagery

and surface observations show limited low-level moisture and broken

to widespread low clouds over this region. This should hinder the

development of any more than meager buoyancy through the

afternoon/evening. Even though some high-resolution guidance shows a

stronger thunderstorm or two developing in eastern CO/western KS,

the overall thermodynamic environment appears too marginal to

include low severe probabilities at this time.



$$