ACUS01 KWNS 271158

SWODY1

SPC AC 271156



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0656 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Valid 271300Z - 281200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL

PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...



...SUMMARY...

A localized risk for a tornado and damaging gusts will briefly focus

over a small portion of the Florida Panhandle this morning.



...FL Panhandle...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low

over western TN which is forecast to move east today and reach the

southern Appalachians tonight.  A mid-level dryslot has moved into

the northeast Gulf of America early this morning and is co-located

with an 80-kt speed max at 300 mb.  



In the low levels, a stationary maritime front is draped over the

southern portions of the FL Panhandle with a moisture-rich and

adequately unstable airmass along and south of the boundary. 

Easterly low-level flow veering to westerly with height in the mid

levels has resulted in a wind profile supporting updraft rotation. 

A couple of surface-based supercells have been observed approaching

the coast this morning with cycling mesocyclones.  A few hours of

localized severe potential may develop inland over the southern

portion of the FL Panhandle through the late morning.  A tornado

and/or a damaging gust or two are possible with the supercell

activity near the coast.



Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are possible over parts of the

Great Plains states.  Elongated hodographs over the central High

Plains may aid in the development of a stronger storm or two late

this afternoon/early evening, but storm intensity will probably

remain limited.  A few storms exhibiting transient rotation may

develop over the near-shore waters to the east of the FL-GA-SC

coast, but models primarily show this activity remaining offshore

over the continental shelf/Gulf Stream.



..Smith/Weinman.. 10/27/2025



$$