ACUS01 KWNS 270501

SWODY1

SPC AC 270500



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1200 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Valid 271200Z - 281200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.

today through tonight.



...Discussion...

Models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high will continue to

evolve northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the southern

Hudson/James Bay vicinity through this period.  At the same time, it

appears that the westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific

will undergo amplification, leading to building ridging across

British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and digging downstream

troughing across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies into the central Great

Plains.  As this occurs, an initially slow moving downstream low may

accelerate across the Mid South into the southern Appalachians

vicinity by early Tuesday.



While this evolving regime is forecast to maintain cold surface

ridging across the eastern Canadian provinces through the Mid

Atlantic, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, it appears that

another notable surface ridge will build across the Intermountain

West and Rockies into the Great Plains, before substantive low-level

moistening occurs within modest lee surface troughing initially

across the high plains.  As the leading edge of cyclonic mid-level

flow associated with the Southeastern low spreads across the south

Atlantic coast, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence offshore as

early as this afternoon.  In its wake, cool/stable conditions will

be reinforced across much of the Southeast through northwestern Gulf

Basin.



...Florida...

Beneath broadly difluent, cyclonic mid/upper flow overspreading the

region, scattered thunderstorm development appears probable as a

moist boundary layer destabilizes with insolation by this afternoon.

Although some hail and gusty winds might accompany stronger

convection, potential for reaching severe limits still seems limited

due to the lack of colder air aloft, and generally modest to weak

lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields/shear.



..Kerr/Wendt.. 10/27/2025



$$