ACUS01 KWNS 270049

SWODY1

SPC AC 270048



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0748 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



Valid 270100Z - 271200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING

INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF ALABAMA AND THE

WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF COAST...AND NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL

FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...



...SUMMARY...

Strong thunderstorm activity could still develop and impact areas

near or offshore of southern Alabama through the western Florida

Panhandle Gulf coast late this evening into the overnight hours,

accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.



...01Z...

Expansive cold surface ridging, centered to the north of the lower

Great Lakes region, is maintaining a considerable stabilizing

influence as far south and west as northern Florida through the

Texas Gulf coast and southern Great Plains.  However, as broadly

cyclonic mid-level flow continues to overspread the Gulf coast

vicinity, model output indicates that an area of relatively lower

surface pressure may develop along a weak baroclinic zone across and

offshore of southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight.  



Along the frontal zone downstream of the low, high resolution

ensemble output has been suggesting that the environment could

become conducive to vigorous convective development with evolving

embedded cyclonic mesoscale circulations.  Based on latest

observational data, some increase in such activity still appears

possible near or offshore of coastal areas from southern Alabama

through the western Florida Panhandle tonight.  But potential for

inland development with an appreciable risk for severe weather

beyond immediate coastal areas appears rather low.



Near Florida's Space Coast, coastal convergence enhanced by moist,

potentially unstable onshore easterly low-level flow has contributed

to sufficient lift to overcome mid-level inhibition.  In the

presence of moderate shear beneath modest westerly mid/upper

westerlies, it appears that the environment may remain marginally

conducive to  occasional evolution of supercell structures into at

least mid to late evening.



..Kerr.. 10/27/2025



$$