ACUS01 KWNS 220559

SWODY1

SPC AC 220557



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1257 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Valid 221200Z - 231200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO

VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging

wind gusts, and a conditional tornado threat are expected this

afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the

northern Mid Atlantic region.



... Overview ...



A weak shortwave trough will gradually amplify today as fast

west-northwesterly flow translates across the Great Lakes into the

Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will push southward through

the Ohio Valley, with a series of weak frontal waves moving eastward

into the Mid-Atlantic.



... Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic ...



Favorable deep-layer shear will be in place across the area as

relatively steep midlevel lapse rates advect into the region,

originating within an unseasonably hot and well-mixed airmass across

the Southwest and central US. The key uncertainty regarding severe

potential will be how aggressively moisture returns. Strong

antecedent heating and mixing upstream may limit moistening across

the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic, but relatively cool

midlevel temperatures should still support moderate buoyancy.



Storms are expected to initiate along and ahead of the surface front

across eastern Ohio and Pennsylvania, where modest warm advection

and a weakening cap favor development. Moderate instability combined

with the favorable wind profile will support a supercell threat.

Large hail -- potentially greater than golf balls -- will be

possible with any sustained supercell. Damaging winds are also

possible, particularly where surface heating is maximized and steep

low-level lapse rates can develop. With time, the surging cold front

should undercut thunderstorms, limiting the potential for a more

organized, widespread damaging wind event. The low-level wind field

will support some tornado potential before thunderstorms are

undercut, with the tornado threat tied closely to how aggressively

the boundary layer moisture returns.



An additional round of convection is expected to develop during the

late afternoon into the overnight hours as the front surges

south-southeastward. This activity is likely to be post-frontal and

elevated in nature, but given strong cloud-layer shear and steep

mid-level lapse rates, severe hail will still be possible with these

later storms.



..Marsh.. 03/22/2026



$$