ACUS01 KWNS 121946

SWODY1

SPC AC 121945



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0145 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



Valid 122000Z - 131200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower

Texas Coast early Saturday morning.



...20Z Update...

No changes needed to ongoing forecast.



..Grams.. 12/12/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025/



...Discussion...

Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper-level jet streak

moving eastward across northern MX. The core of this feature will

advance into the western Gulf tonight -- remaining south of TX. In

response, a modest increase in southerly low-level flow will deepen

boundary-layer moisture/erode inhibition and yield weak

surface-based buoyancy over the western Gulf and Lower TX Coast

overnight. While most deep convection should be confined to the

higher low-level theta-e plume offshore, strengthening coastal

convergence amid the deepening low-level moisture may support a

couple storms over the immediate coastal areas in the 08-12Z time

frame. A remnant warm layer aloft and weak low/mid-level flow should

limit updraft intensity over land areas.



$$