ACUS01 KWNS 121622

SWODY1

SPC AC 121620



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1020 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



Valid 121630Z - 131200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower

Texas Coast early Saturday morning.



...Discussion...

Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper-level jet streak

moving eastward across northern MX. The core of this feature will

advance into the western Gulf tonight -- remaining south of TX. In

response, a modest increase in southerly low-level flow will deepen

boundary-layer moisture/erode inhibition and yield weak

surface-based buoyancy over the western Gulf and Lower TX Coast

overnight. While most deep convection should be confined to the

higher low-level theta-e plume offshore, strengthening coastal

convergence amid the deepening low-level moisture may support a

couple storms over the immediate coastal areas in the 08-12Z time

frame. A remnant warm layer aloft and weak low/mid-level flow should

limit updraft intensity over land areas.



..Weinman.. 12/12/2025



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