ACUS01 KWNS 091631

SWODY1

SPC AC 091630



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1130 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025



Valid 091630Z - 101200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN

FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH

CAROLINA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEAST

VIRGINIA...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts

are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast,

especially from the eastern Florida Peninsula through southeast

Georgia, and across northeastern North Carolina/far southeast

Virginia.



...Synopsis...

Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of cyclones embedded within a

large positively titled upper trough extending from the southern

Plains through the Northeast. The northernmost/easternmost cyclone

is centered over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity, and is forecast to

move gradually eastward throughout the day, ending the period over

southern New England. An associated surface low, which is currently

centered over eastern NJ, is forecast to progress northeastward

while becoming increasingly aligned with the mid-level cyclone. A

cold front extends southwestward from this low across VA and then

back westward across KY, southern IL, and central MO. As the low

moves northeastward, this front is expected to gradually push

southward/southeastward, moving through much of the Mid-Atlantic by

this evening. 



The southernmost/westernmost embedded cyclone is currently centered

over southern AR, and the expectation is for the cyclone to shift

southeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Lower

MS Valley. Primary surface low associated with this system is

currently over the northwest Gulf. This low is forecast to progress

slowly eastward along the central Gulf coast, remaining just off

shore and likely reaching just off AL/MS border intersection by

early tomorrow morning.



...Central Gulf Coast into FL...

A modest, convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is forecast to

move from the central FL Panhandle into southeast GA/northern FL

today, well ahead of the mid-level cyclone and associated surface

low described in the synopsis. Localized ascent attendant to this

features coupled with modest large-scale forcing for ascent and

airmass destabilization will result in early-afternoon thunderstorm

development, particularly along any sea breeze boundary that

develops. Vertical shear will be modest, resulting in a mostly

multicellular mode. Even so, updrafts are still expected to be

strong enough to produce damaging downbursts and isolated large

hail.



Later tonight, some additional organization/strengthening of a

convective line near the surface low is possible. Some strengthening

of the low-level flow could occur at the same time, resulting in a

low-probability tornado risk along the coast from AL into the

western and central FL Peninsula. 



...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...

Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region,

with the highest coverage from the VA Tidewater into east-central

NC, where forcing along the cold front will be strongest. The

strongest shear is anticipated across this region as well, but the

overall magnitude should still be modest, with most guidance

suggesting deep-layer shear around 35 kt. Buoyancy will be modest as

well, with MLCAPE likely maximizing around 800 to 1000 J/kg. These

environmental conditions support the potential for a few stronger,

more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated

large hail.



..Mosier/Squitieri.. 05/09/2025



$$