ACUS01 KWNS 090543

SWODY1

SPC AC 090541



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1241 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025



Valid 091200Z - 101200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN FLORIDA...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe gusts will

be possible today across parts of eastern North Carolina.

Thunderstorms with potential for severe gusts and hail may also form

over eastern Florida. A marginal severe threat is also expected to

develop outside of the Slight Risk areas from parts of the Southeast

northeastward to southern Maryland.



...Southeast...

At mid-levels today, flow will remain west-southwesterly across the

southeastern U.S. At the surface, a very moist airmass will remain

from Florida to the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints will

be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. The greatest instability is

forecast across the eastern Florida Peninsula, where the models are

in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to

3000 J/kg range. As instability increases during the day,

thunderstorms are expected to develop along a sea breeze boundary in

eastern Florida. RAP forecast soundings near the boundary have 0-6

km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some directional shear at

low-levels. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak in

the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should be enough for a wind-damage

threat with the stronger cells that form near the boundary. The

potential for severe gusts is expected to be concentrated in the mid

to late afternoon near max heating. A marginal and isolated severe

threat will also be possible westward across parts of the central

Gulf Coast states during the afternoon.



...Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southern Maryland...

A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move through the Ohio

Valley today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the

Atlantic Seaboard. A surface low will move northeastward into the

Mid-Atlantic, as a cold front moves across the Atlantic Coastal

Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F.

As surface heating takes place during the day, destabilization is

expected near the Atlantic coast in the eastern Carolinas. MLCAPE is

expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the early

afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 20Z in eastern North Carolina

have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8

to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast

to be steep around 700 mb. This environment could support supercells

with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat

should end by early evening, as the more favorable environment moves

offshore.



..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/09/2025



$$