ACUS01 KWNS 070533

SWODY1

SPC AC 070532



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1232 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026



Valid 071200Z - 081200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST

ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING

THE PANHANDLE...



...SUMMARY...

Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a

couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and

portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the

Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in

parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and

deep South Texas.



...Synopsis...



Separate vorticity maxima over the northern Plains and Raton Mesa

vicinity this evening are forecast to phase while progressing

through the southern periphery of broader-scale troughing present

across eastern Canada into the OH Valley and Northeast. That pattern

evolution will contribute to more substantial height falls from the

mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians and Southeast on

Thursday. Strong, mid/upper-level flow will be maintained within the

base of the deepening trough from the lower-MS Valley into the

Southeast and mid-Atlantic region.



At the surface, a cold front is expected to initially stretch from

the Tidewater region to diffuse low pressure over the western

Carolinas into northeast GA, and then southwest to the central Gulf

Coast. That boundary will slowly advance southeast through the day,

with that feature along with any convective outflow boundaries

serving as the foci for strong to severe storm development.



...Carolinas to northeast Gulf Coast...



Convection-allowing model guidance suggests that a

west-to-east-oriented, pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will be

ongoing at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) across southern

AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, rooted within a

warm-advection regime along a 40-50 kt low-level jet. The low-level

jet will aid in the northeastward advection of an increasingly moist

boundary layer from off the northeast Gulf with dewpoints increasing

into the low 70s within the inflow region of the early-day storms.

That moisture will largely contribute to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg,

despite poor mid-level lapse rates.



The presence of the low-level jet will support initially strong

near-ground shear (i.e., effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) within the

instability axis preceding the storms. However, that feature is

forecast to gradually weaken while migrating east through the

morning, with seemingly the best tornado potential existing during

the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind

gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast

through the level 2/Slight Risk area.



Farther to the northeast across the NC/SC Piedmont and Coastal

Plain, poor lapse rates are expected to limit instability to

generally less than 500 j/kg. However, deep-layer wind fields will

be strong, suggesting the potential for locally strong wind gusts 

with any deeper convective elements forming along and ahead of the

cold front from late morning into afternoon.  





...Lower Rio Grande Valley/deep South Texas...



There is a model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm

development at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) with the

location of the storms varying from model to model. RAP-based

soundings suggest that the storms would be slightly elevated above a

stable, near-surface layer within a moderately unstable environment

with MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates aren't

expected to be particularly steep, the presence of 50-60+ kt

effective bulk shear magnitudes would support the potential for

supercell structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail

and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe-weather threat is expect

to remain confined to the morning hours.



..Mead/Lyons.. 05/07/2026



$$