ACUS01 KWNS 061950

SWODY1

SPC AC 061948



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0248 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026



Valid 062000Z - 071200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN

MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and

evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee

Valleys/southern Appalachians.  Supercells capable of all hazards

will be possible across portions of central/southern Mississippi and

central Alabama before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk

into the late evening/overnight.



...20z Update...

The primary forecast update was a reduction in severe probabilities

across portions of central/eastern TX and across the Mid-South in

the wake of the surface cold front. Latest regional radar mosaic

shows the early stages of deepening convection across far eastern TX

into central LA as low-level moisture continues to deepen (per 18z

RAOBs). This activity is expected to gradually intensify through

late afternoon amid filtered diurnal heating that should continue to

erode lingering MLCIN. Strong deep-layer wind shear (sampled in

regional VWPs and 18 UTC RAOBs) should maintain the severe threat

through the evening hours. Confidence severe thunderstorms remains

highest across southern MS where convection originating in central

LA will likely track and intensify within a favorable environment

(where STP values will increase to 2-3 by late afternoon) prior to

undercutting by the cold front later this evening.



..Moore.. 05/06/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/



...TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...

A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow

extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the

southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded

shortwaves.  Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front

slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS

and into the southern Appalachians.  South of the boundary, a

quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is

expected through tonight.  A moist airmass maintained by southerly

flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to

lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front.  Despite extensive cloud

cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg

lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and

Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm

advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield

scattered storms developing later this afternoon.  Moderately steep

mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support

strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over

LA/MS.  Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment

will likely result in several strong supercells eventually

developing late this afternoon through the evening.  Large to very

large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the

stronger storms.  The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this

afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow

strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support

the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe.  Whether

or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will

largely be a function of storm mode.  Storms should eventually begin

to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind

threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.



The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist 

environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout

much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for

all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate

SC late tonight.



$$