ACUS01 KWNS 040046

SWODY1

SPC AC 040045



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0645 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026



Valid 040100Z - 041200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the

contiguous United States.



...Synopsis...

A surface cold front is evident in 00 UTC surface observations

extending from Middle TN southwestward to the TX Coastal Plain with

thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southeast TX into western

LA. This activity is expected to spread southeastward into the

northwestern Gulf through 12 UTC in tandem with the surface front. A

recent 00 UTC sounding from CRP sampled around 500 J/kg SBCAPE, but

the onset of nocturnal cooling should begin to modulate buoyancy

heading into the late evening/overnight hours. While forcing along

the front will continue to support convection, thunderstorm

intensity will likely continue to wane and limit the potential for

organized convection given the deteriorating thermodynamic

conditions.



..Moore.. 02/04/2026



$$