ABPW10 PGTW 220230

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220230Z-220600ZMAR2026//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZMAR2026//

REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220221ZMAR2026//

NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 21MAR26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 135.7E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF

DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE

ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW

212100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

11.7S 161.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM

SOUTH OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN

OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING

DEVELOPING IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 212237Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEFINED

CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF

98P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR

DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

(28-29 C). THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE FORMATION

OF 98P THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, THOUGH BOTH MODEL TYPES AGREE

ON 98P TRACKING SOUTHWARD WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24-

48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30

KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW

220230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO

HIGH.//

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