ABPW10 PGTW 090600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZMAY2025//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

9.0S 141.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH-

NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, NHULUNBUY, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING

PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING

CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF

20-25 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN

GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY

WESTWARD, THEN REMAIN NEAR THE ARAFURA SEA AND SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE

NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO

25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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