ABPW10 PGTW 090300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/090300Z-090600ZMAY2025//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

9.0S 141.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 228 NM

NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, NHULUNBUY, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING UNDER ORGANIZING

CONVECTION. A 082316Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOTS WINDS

TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR

DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD

POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)

OF 29-31 C. FURTHERMORE, A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE ANALYZED

POSITION REVEALS ROBUST DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN

THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER

WATER, THEN REMAIN NEAR THE ARAFURA SEA AND SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE

NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20

TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005

MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO

MEDIUM.//

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