ABPW10 PGTW 031900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031900Z-040600ZJUL2025//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZJUL2025.//

REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031851ZJUL2025.//

NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 03JUL25 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WAS LOCATED NEAR

28.3N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, AND

HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO

75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 031500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

17.3N 123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VIGAN. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY

DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING

OVER AND AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH

FRAGMENTED BANDING DEVELOPING ON THE OUTER PERIMETER OF THE LLCC.

PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES AT 031305Z AND 031356Z OUTLINE THE OUTERMOST

EDGES OF THE CIRCULATION, HOWEVER NOT THE CIRCULATION ITSELF WHICH

WAS IN THE NADIR GAP, AND INDICATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND

BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 VWS),

GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS GFS, ECMWF AND CMC AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT

WITHIN A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD, WHILE TAKING THE SYSTEM GENERALLY

NORTHEASTWARD, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TRACK AS WELL, ENCENS MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AND

GEFS MOVES MORE NORTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT

TIMELINE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO

HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 031900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO

HIGH.//

NNNN