ABPW10 PGTW 030600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZJUL2025//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZJUL2025//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 03JUL25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 04W (MUN) WAS LOCATED NEAR

27.0N 145.4E, APPROXIMATELY 577 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA,

JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS

GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER

DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

17.3N 123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 121.7E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

(MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT

CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLC. RECENT

OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM CALAYAN, PHILIPPINES  REPORT

WESTERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH FROM A SHIP IS

REPORTING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 14 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL

ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20

KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS

INDICATE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48

HOURS, WITH ECENS TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD AND GEFS

SHOWING ERRATIC, SLOW TRACK MOTION. IN GENERAL, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE

INDICATES SLOW, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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